[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 29 10:13:03 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X17/4B 1110UT probable all European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 274/226
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 270/221 260/210 250/200
COMMENT: Solar region 486 (S16E07) produced an X17/4B (Y1.7) parallel
ribbon flare at 1110UT. All the geoeffective indicators are "ticked"
with this event. The event was associated with a bright/fast full-halo
coronal mass ejection (~2000km/sec), and an intense proton event
which began at 1215UT on all energy levels (10,50,100 MeV). This
mass ejection's Sun-Earth flight time is expected to be faster than
normal due to speed of ejection and presumed already elevated
background solar wind speeds, (presumably around 700km/sec).
It is expected to hit the Earth during second half of the UT day
29 Oct. The recent expected mass ejections did arrive with only minor
discontinuites observed at 0130 and 0230UT approximately. Shocks
were not auto detected due to solar wind density not changing
across shock arrival (all wind parameters must show jump for
auto detection). The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was only briefly/mildly southward around shock
arrival times. This event was thus overforecast. The US ACE satellite
became blinded at 13UT due to the strong proton event. Due to
the intensity of the proton event it is likely that the ACE spacecraft
will remain blind when the shock from the X17 (Y1.7) flare arrives.
No web access was possible to the SOHO MTOF proton solar wind
speed monitor presumably due to high usage of the site with the
loss of ACE data. A strong solar radio noise storm has been
observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph since dawn this morning.
Further flares from 486, 484 (now far west approaching western
limb) and 488 (still growing) are expected today. 484 will depart
the disk in a couple of days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 15 3334 2333
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 15 3334 2333
Learmonth 13 3333 2333
Culgoora 13 3333 2333
Canberra 13 3333 2332
Hobart 13 3333 2333
Casey(Ant) 32 4555 3434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 3343 2331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 90 Major to severe storm levels second half UT day.
30 Oct 70 Major storm first half UT day, then declining.
31 Oct 20 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 28 October
and is current for interval 29-30 October. Forecast storm levels
did not eventuate. Shocks from recent CME's were mildler than
expected and the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field maintained a mostly neutral/northward orientation
reducing geoeffectiveness. However, severe storm levels expected
second half of 29 Oct and first half 30 Oct due to strong flare/CME
overnight. This event is much more likely to be geoeffective.
There is a good chance for a strong auroral display with this
event.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor (PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev/100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 28 10 2003 1215UT
and is in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor
30 Oct Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor
31 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Polar HF conditions again impacted by strong absorption
which began at 1215UT on 28 Oct. Very strong degradation in HF
conditions expected at mid to high latitudes over next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 70 enhanced 15 to 20%/depressed 20 to 40% late in
UT day.
30 Oct 10 depressed 15 to 40%/near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 30 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 78 was issued on 28 October
and is current for interval 29-30 October. Expected ionospheric
depression for this morning have not eventuated due to weaker
than expected shock induced geomagnetic activity. However, a
strong degradation and depression is expected late 29 and 30
Oct due to anticpated geomagnetic activity from very large (X17)
flare/CME overnight.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.6E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C3.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 469 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 143000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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