[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 31 10:57:48 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: High
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 271/223
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 265/216 260/210 255/205
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Three low M-class
and five high level C-class flares were recorded- the
largest being an M1.7 from region 486 (S18W23) at 0206UT.
Region 488 (N08W28) has also been active today and produced
an M1.6 flare at 0207UT. Both these regions hold strong
potential to produce major flares. The CME, associated with
the X10 flare observed on 29 October, arrived at 1600UT
(approx.) and strengthened the solar wind stream and the
currently progressing proton event. The solar wind speed
remained mostly between 500 km/s and 700 km/s until around
1600UT. The solar wind speed suddenly increased to 1000 km/s
on the arrival of the CME and remained mostly at that level
during the rest of the day. Even higher solar wind speed values
(>1100km/s) have been reported after the arrival of this CME.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(BZ) recovered from approximately -20nT to the normal value
during the first three hours of the UT day and remained mostly
normal until the arrival of the CME around 1600UT. Bz then turned
southwards (-20nT) approximately on the arrival of the CME and
remained mostly southwards thereafter for the rest of the UT
day, showing fluctuations. The >100MeV and >10 MeV proton
events are still continueing, although showing signs of decline
now. Region 486 is still maintaining its size and complexity.
Region 488 and 486 are likely to produce major flares. Solar
activity is expected to remain high during the next 3 days.
New region 495(S22E20) is growing rapidly.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Unsettled to
Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 70 6653 5677
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 58 5543 5677
Learmonth 90 7643 5687
Culgoora 62 6543 5677
Canberra 70 6653 5677
Hobart 101 7753 5687
Casey(Ant) 75 6765 4-67
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 OCT :
Townsville 104 (Major storm)
Learmonth 140 (Severe storm)
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 115
Planetary 130
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 199
Planetary 189 4398 7798
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 90 Major to severe storm.
01 Nov 30 Minor storm to unsettled.
02 Nov 15 Mostly unsettled.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 30 October
and is current for interval 30 October to 1 November. The
geomagnetic activity had started to decline after the effect
of the CME observed on 28 October started to subside in the
first half of the UT day, but an early arrival of the CME
observed on 29 October again strengthened the solar wind
stream and the geomagnetic activity again rose up to major
and severe storm levels after 1600UT. The geomangetic activity
is expected to remain enhanced to major to severe storm
levels on 31 October (UTday) and then gradually decline on
01 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Poor Poor Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 10 2003 1215UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Poor Poor Poor
01 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain poor on
31 October(UT day) on most locations. Improvement in HF
conditions may be expected on the low and mid-latitudes
on 01 November (UT day). High latitude locations may show
improvement on 02 November (UT day).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 55% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 10 depressed 25 to 40%
01 Nov 40 depressed 10 to 20%
02 Nov 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on
30 October and is current for interval 30 October to 1
November. HF conditions in Aus/NZ region expected to show
strong depressions and degradations on 31 October (UT day).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.7E+08
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 282 km/sec Density: 37.9 p/cc Temp: 84800 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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