[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 25 08:18:20 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.6 0255UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.2 0510UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 1858UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 2140UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 191/143
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 195/147 200/152
COMMENT: Solar region 486 produced the M7.7 flare at 0255UT.
This region is located at S16E60. A Type IV radio sweep was observed
on the Culgoora radio spectrograph following this flare, suggesting
a mass ejection. US SOHO coronagraph imagery showed an eastward
non earth directed mass ejection. US Big Bear Observatory advises
that 486 has developed further magnetic compexity and X class
flares seem probable from this region. Solar region 486 located
at N04W08 whilst not as flare productive as 486 remains magnetically
complex and still has good flare potential. The location of 484,
just past the solar central meridian is a very geoeffective location
for any activity. A strong shock was observed in the solar wind
at 1448UT with solar wind speed increasing from 426 to 570 km/sec.
The magnetopause appeared to cross inside geosynchronous orbit
at time of impact. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated southward at time of CME impact, but
has now become prodominately northward, ie the Bz "storm switch"
is currently "off". It is not clear, but this shock is presumed
to have been from the activity around 484 on 22 Oct, and another
mass ejection remains possibly enroute from the recent X5 event from
region 486 on 23 Oct. Solar 10MeV proton flux levels remain mildly
enhanced following recent flare activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 37 2233 4755
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 28 3322 4655
Learmonth 34 1222 5745
Culgoora 25 1222 4655
Canberra 26 1232 4654
Hobart 53 0233 5854
Casey(Ant) 42 3-44 4664
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 OCT :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 3222 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 30 Initially at minor storm levels then declining.
26 Oct 50 Storm levels if another mass jection arrives
27 Oct 25 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 48 was issued on 22 October
and is current for interval 24-25 October. The first of two mass
ejections has arrived. A moderate (74nT) impulse was observed in
the IPS magnetomter data at 1525UT on 24 Oct. The north south
component of the interplantary magnetic field was southward
immediately following shock arrival but has now swung strongly
northward, a state that decreases geomagnetic activity. If
this orientation is maintained geomagnetic activity is
expected to rapidly ease today. However, another mass ejection
is possible first half of the UT day on 26 Oct. This is not
certain as one shock may have overtaken the other.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event. Increased absoprtion from enhaanced,
but below event level, solar proton flux.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Fair-normal Fair Poor-fair
26 Oct Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
27 Oct Normal Fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions at mid to high latitudes expected
next three days. Transpolar HF circuits may also experience increased
absorption due to 10MeV proton enhancement.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values 00-06UT.
Depressed 15-20% later in UT day, spread F
and absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct 55 near predicted monthly values (North Aus)
25 Oct 25 20 to 40% below/near predicted monthly values (south Aus/NZ)
26 Oct 35 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Oct 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on 22 October
and is current for interval 24-25 October. Depressed MUFs expected
early in UT day today then recovering. Depression followed
geomagnetic activity associated with mass ejection impact. Another
mass ejection is expected on 26 Oct. Depressed conditions on 26
Oct if this mass ejection arrives.
Note: Frequent flares and shortwave fadeouts are expected today.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: C3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 483 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 13800 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list