[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 24 08:56:34 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 0241UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.2 0708UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X5.4 0835UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1622UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
X1.1 2004UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
M1.3 2232UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 183/136
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 195/147 195/147
COMMENT: Solar region 486 located at S16E70 produced the X5 and
X1 flares. Despite the regions far west location the X5 flare
was associated with a front side full halo mass ejection. Event
parameters give a shock arrival window of 04 to 12UT on 26Oct.
There are now two shocks enroute to the Earth, another shock
from an earlier event near region 484 is expected to arrive first
half of 24 Oct. Region 484 contributed some mid range M class
events yesterday. Further M and X class activity is expected
today. Solar wind speed has now declined to 400km/sec, with Bz
(the north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field)
maintaining a mildly northward orientation. Quiet before the
storm.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 4232 1112
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 13 4243 222-
Learmonth 8 4232 1102
Culgoora 9 4232 1112
Canberra 9 4-32 1012
Hobart 6 3232 1001
Casey(Ant) 15 4343 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 OCT :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 33 4565 4432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 40 Minor to major storm storm
25 Oct 30 Active to Minor storm
26 Oct 60 Storm levels
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 48 was issued on 22 October
and is current for interval 24-25 October. Two sudden storm
commencements are expected, the first arriving first half of
UT day 24 Oct, the second arriving first half UT day on 26
Oct. Storm conditions expected to follow impulses, if Bz
swings strongly southward following shock arrival.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event. However, 10Mev Proton flux enhancement.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Fair Fair-Poor Poor
25 Oct Fair Fair Fair-Poor
26 Oct Poor Poor Poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions at mid to high latitudes expected
next three days. Transpolar HF circuits may also experience increased
absorption due to 10MeV proton enhancement.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct 70 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-30%
25 Oct 10 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
26 Oct 25 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on 22 October
and is current for interval 24-25 October. MUFs expected to initially
be near to slightly above predicted monthly values. A coronal
mass ejection is expected to arrive first half of the UT day
on 24 Oct with storm conditions anticipated to follow. Another
mass ejection is expected on 26 Oct. Strongly depressed and degraded
conditions are expected next few days in Aus/NZ region if strong
geomagnetic activity follows mass ejection arrival. Frequent
flares and shortwave fadeouts are expected today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: C4.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 634 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 62100 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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