[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 23 09:19:45 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 21/2336UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0229UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.7 0352UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 1511UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 1601UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M9.9 2007UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar region 484 now located at (N04E13) continues to
slowly grow and remains magnetically very complex. Region 484
produced two M1 class xray events over the past 24 hours. The
solar radio noise storm which has been very strong on the Culgoora
Radiospectrograph over the past two days, has eased this morning.
A new solar region, now known as 486 (S16E81) was the origin
of the M9 event. This region has been very active over past 24
hours, and has not yet completely rotated into view. Both these
regions are expected to produce further flare activity over coming
days. Any coronal mass ejection activity from 484 is likely to
be geoeffective, whilst the current eastward location of 486
(the more active region) would reduce mass ejection impacts from
this region. A coronal mass ejection has been reported by the
US LASCO team starting at 0754UT on 22 Oct, spanning 285 degrees
(almost complete halo). Therefore this mass ejection is considered
Earth directed. The CME has been reported to be associated with
flare/filament eruptions near region 484 around 05UT. Mass ejection
is anticipated to arrive early on 24 Oct. Solar wind speed steadily
declined from 750 to 550 km/sec over the UT day, indicating the
Earth has left the recent coronal hole high speed wind stream.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
Bz was southward 5 nT, until about 14 UT, when with a small discontinuiy
fluctuated 10nT south before swinging positive 10nT north after
17 UT. This current northward orientation should produce reduced
geomagnetic activity for today. The discontinuity may have been
due to leaving the coronal hole wind stream which had a mild
southward orientation to the background solar wind which appears
to currently have a northward orientation. Note that ACE EPAM
data, low enery ion flux channels do show a shock arrival precursor
signature, so this discontinuity could also be an indistinct
shock in the solar wind.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 21 3344 4433
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 21 3344 4433
Learmonth 29 3344 5542
Culgoora 7 22-- ----
Canberra 29 3455 4433
Hobart 27 3455 4333
Casey(Ant) 23 -444 3433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 OCT :
Townsville 13 (Quiet)
Learmonth 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 62 (Active)
Canberra 79 (Active)
Hobart 141 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 38
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 39 5555 5445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
24 Oct 35 Active to Minor storm, chance major storm
25 Oct 18 active
COMMENT: Current northward IMF conditions should produce reduced
geomagentic activity for today. However, geomagnetic storm activity
is expected on 24 Oct due to anticipated arrival of mass ejection.
Isolated major storm periods may be experienced on this day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event, However chance for solar proton flare.
(Background solar proton flux at 10MeV is
showing a very mild enhancement, probably from
recent flare activity.)
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Oct Fair Fair Fair-Poor
25 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions at mid to high latitudes over
past 24 hours. Improved HF conditions expected for today, before
a moderate to strong degradation at mid to high latitudes starting
sometime on 24 Oct due to anticipated coronal mass ejection impact.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Spread F and absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct 45 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
24 Oct 50 near predicted monthly values
25 Oct 20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Lower than normal MUFs expected first half of UT day
today for southern region Aus/NZ. Northern region MUFs expected
to remain near predicted monthly values. Disturbed and depressed
conditions expected to begin late 24 Oct and a general MUF depression
is expected 25 Oct, in association with anticpated geomagnetic
activity from expected coronal mass ejection impact. Shortwave
fadeouts likely on daylight HF circuits, due to large active
solar region on solar disk, and another very active solar region
rotating onto solar disk.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 691 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 289000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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