[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 26 09:15:27 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0452UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.7 0554UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.5 1037UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 222/172
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 210/161 200/152
COMMENT: Solar regions 484 and 486 remain flare capable. Both
regions produced low level M class events over past 24 hours.Region
486 appears to have the better chance for further X class events.
Solar wind speed decreased from 600 to 500km/sec over the UT
day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was predominately northward for most of the UT day, a state
that decreases the geoeffectivness of the solar wind. ACE EPAM
shock precursor data does not show an increasing flux trend,
indicating that the possible second arrival of another shock
now seems unlikely to arrive on 26 Oct. The recent mild enhancement
in 10MeV solar proton flux levels has now ended. A new solar
region has rotated around the east limb and at this stage seems
to have a relatively simple bipolar magnetic configuration, although
proximity to limb makes assessment difficult. A solar filamanet
has been reported to have erupted during the first half of the
25 Oct, from the solar south-west quadrant. No confirmation of
mass ejection.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 22 4333 5423
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 23 5333 5323
Learmonth 23 5333 5323
Culgoora 20 4333 5323
Canberra 22 4333 5423
Hobart 19 3332 5422
Casey(Ant) 28 --53 444-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 OCT :
Townsville 43 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 68 (Active)
Culgoora 118 (Major storm)
Canberra 160 (Severe storm)
Hobart 189 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 34 2224 5745
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
27 Oct 12 Unsettled
28 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity rapidly declined early in the UT
day, due to the strong northward orientation of the IMF. Some
brief activity was observed around local midnight. The second
mass ejection arrival now seems unlikely to arrive on 26 Oct,
due to the lack of increasing flux signature in ACE EPAM precursor
data. Geomagnetic storm forecast has been abandoned for 26 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Poor-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Improved HF conditins expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Increased absorption nad spread F observed early UT day.
Blanketing sporadic E observed second half UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 50 near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 55 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Strong depression in reginal ionosphere observed yesterday.
Second mass ejection is now not expected to arrive, due to lack
of precursor signature in satellite data over last 24 hours.
Improving HF conditions expected now next few days. Solar regions
that have produced recent flares and mass ejections remain flare
capable and frequent flares and shortwave fadeouts are expected
today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 52500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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