[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 21 09:13:40 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 0725UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: The M1 flare was from solar region 484, now located
at N06E41. No CME appeared associated with the M1. This region
continues to grow in area and magnetic complexity. An strong
solar radio noise storm is visible since dawn on the Culgoora
Radiospectrograph. Background xray flux levels have shown an
increasing trend over past 12 hours. Further flare activity expected
from this region today. Solar wind speed shows an increase from
500km/sec at 07 UT to 700km/s at time of issue of this report,
indicating we have entered the anticpated wind stream from a
solar coronal hole. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was mildly southward (5nT) for most of the UT
day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 14 2233 3434
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 13 1233 3434
Learmonth 14 2233 3435
Culgoora 14 2233 3434
Canberra 16 2233 3444
Hobart 18 3334 3434
Casey(Ant) 18 --43 33--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 OCT :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Culgoora 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 73 (Active)
Hobart 92 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 32 3455 5444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 18 Active, minor storm periods possible.
22 Oct 20 Active, minor storm periods possible.
23 Oct 17 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 18 October
and is current for interval 21-22 October. An increase in activity
is expected for interval 21-22 Oct due coronal hole high speed
wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
23 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected at mid to high latitudes
from 21-22 Oct due to futher coronal hole wind stream induced
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
22 Oct 40 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
23 Oct 40 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 19 October
and is current for interval 20-22 October (SWFs) . Lower than
normal MUFs are likely for southern Aus/NZ region next few days,
in association with coronal hole wind stream induced activity.
There is an increasing chance for short wave fadeouts due to
magnetically complex solar region in north-east solar quadrant.
Northern Aus region MUFs expected to be near normal and communicators
within this region should use a T of 60.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B5.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 593 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 163000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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