[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 20 09:04:52 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1/1N 1629UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
M1/-- 0626UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Moderate-High Moderate-High Moderate-High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: The unexpected X1 event was from solar region 484 located
at N06E54. This flare was CME associated but ejecta did not appear
Earth directed. This region has more than doubled in area overnight,
and is now magnetically complex. Also, the north/south magnetic
field areas of this region are rotated almost 90 degress, with
a horizontal rather than a vertical neutral line, positive above
the neutral line and predomiately nagetive below (currently solar
regions in the northern solar hemisphere would normally be separated
horizontally by a vertical neutral line, with the leader spot
a positive or north magnetic polarity, and the trailers having
a negative or south magnetic polarity). Such rotated magnetic
field orientations are rare and have been historically associated
with strong proton flares. Solar region 484 may be the return
of old region 464.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 22 2344 4443
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 16 2233 4433
Learmonth 19 2234 4443
Culgoora 19 2234 4443
Canberra 28 2344 5543
Hobart 31 2354 5543
Casey(Ant) 17 3343 33--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 OCT :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 69 (Active)
Canberra 119 (Major storm)
Hobart 100 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 27 4544 4344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 13 Unsettled to active
21 Oct 18 Active, minor storm periods possible.
22 Oct 20 Active, minor storm periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 18 October
and is current for interval 21-22 October. An increase in activity
is expected for interval 21-22 Oct due coronal hole high speed
wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event. Proton flare event possible.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected at mid to high latitudes
from 21-22 Oct due to futher coronal hole wind stream induced
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed 15-20%. Absorption and spread F
observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Oct 40 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
22 Oct 40 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Lower than normal MUFs are likely for southern Aus/NZ
region next few days, in association with coronal hole wind stream
induced activity. There is an increasing chance for short wave
fadeouts due to magnetically complex solar region in north-east solar
quadrant. Northern Aus region MUFs expected to be near normal
and communicators within this region should use a T of 60.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 556 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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