[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 19 08:34:10 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was steady at around 540km/sec over
past 24 hours. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was mildly southward (5 to 7 nT). Solar wind speed
is expected to continue its slow decline over coming days, before
possibly increeasing again for 21-23 Oct due to tail portion
of broad coronal hole now passing solar central meridian. Background
solar xray flux shows a steady increase over the past 24 hours,
in association with new regions rotating around the solar east limb,
particularly new solar region 484 (N05) which appears to have some magnetic
complexity. Increasing chance for flare activity. A partial halo mass
ejection has been reported off the east limb however, the far
eastward location of this event is expected to minimize any
geoeffectivenes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 19 3443 4322
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 17 3343 4322
Learmonth 15 3333 4322
Culgoora 14 3333 4222
Canberra 19 3443 4322
Hobart 17 3443 4222
Casey(Ant) 26 4544 33--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 OCT :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Culgoora 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 98 (Minor storm)
Hobart 72 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 31 4555 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 16 Unsettled to Active
20 Oct 13 Unsettled, with isolated active periods.
21 Oct 18 Active, minor storm periods possible.
COMMENT: A generally declining trend in geomagnetic activity
is expected next two days. An increase in activity is expected for
interval 21-22 Oct due to portion of coronal hole now just past
solar central meridian.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Fair-Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: An improving trend in HF propagation conditions are
expected next two days, before a return to degraded conditions
at mid to high latitudes from 21-22 Oct due to futher coronal
hole wind stream induced activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed 15% over UT day. Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Oct 65 near predicted monthly values
21 Oct 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected next two days.
Lower than normal MUFs are likely for southern Aus/NZ region
after 21 Oct, due to anticpated start of geomagnetic activity
from a solar coronal hole wind stream. Some southern Aus/NZ sites
may experience brief MUF depression after local dawn this morning.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 556 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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