[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Oct             19 Oct             20 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has again shown a mild but steady decline 
over past 24 hours, starting the day at 560km/sec and is now 
currenlt at 540km/sec. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was again mildly southward by about 5nT for most 
of the UT day. Solar wind speed expected to continue to decline 
over next few days. Solar region 477 (nearing the west limb) 
and 482 (newly rotated on region just past north-east limb) managed 
some tiny flares over the past 24 hours. Some new regions are 
expected to continue to rotate onto the solar disk today, and 
this may bring an increase in solar activity over the next few 
days. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 17 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3344 4222
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          16   3334 4223
      Learmonth           17   3335 3222
      Culgoora            17   3344 4223
      Canberra            17   3344 4222
      Hobart              19   3444 4222
      Casey(Ant)          25   5444 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 OCT : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           10   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            55   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            95   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              75   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             26   5345 4444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Oct    16    Unsettled to active 
19 Oct    15    Unsettled to active 
20 Oct    10    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Declining trend in geomagnetic activity expected, as 
recent coronal hole wind stream induced activity abates. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: An improving trend in HF propagation conditions is expected. 
Brief depression may be experience at high latitudes after local dawn.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Oct    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Oct    65    near predicted monthly values 
19 Oct    65    near predicted monthly values 
20 Oct    65    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed conditions yesterday did not persist as long 
as expected with depressed conditions ending at about 03UT yesterday. 
MUFs became unexpectedly enhanced 20% during local night hours. 
With the easing of geomagnetic activity HF conditions are generally 
expected to be mostly near normal for today. Some brief depressions 
may be experienced after local dawn southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 586 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:   166000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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