[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 17 08:42:16 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has shown a mild but steady decline
over past 24 hours, starting the day at 600km/sec and is now
currenlt at 560km/sec. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was again mildly southward by about 5nT for most
of the UT day. Solar wind speed expecte dto continue to decline
over next few days. Solar region 477 managed a tiny sub-faint
flare at 0258 UT. However, some new regions look like they will
rotate around the east limb (north and south of the solar equator)
over the next day or two (visible in SOHO EIT imagery). The region
north of the equator could be the return of old region 464 (moderately
complex, but only produced an M1 last transit) mentioned in yesterdays
report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 18 3235 3333
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 17 3225 3333
Learmonth 19 3235 -333
Culgoora 16 3235 3222
Canberra 18 3235 3333
Hobart 16 3235 3222
Casey(Ant) 16 44-3 22--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 OCT :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 14 (Quiet)
Culgoora 94 (Minor storm)
Canberra 131 (Severe storm)
Hobart 131 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 42 3476 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 18 active
18 Oct 18 active
19 Oct 15 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Active conditions expected due to broad coronal hole.
Overall declining trend in activity expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
18 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions, with an improving trend expected
over next two day at mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 15% early in local day.
Near predicted monthly values.
Depressed 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Oct 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed conditions yesterday were not as widespread
as forecast with depressions observed at Hobart (Tas), and Mundaring
(WA) and Learmonth (WA), but not in Sydney or Christchurch. Continued
variable conditions expected today, and southern region MUFs
are again expected to be 15% depressed early in UT day. Northern
region MUFs are expected to remain near predicted monthly values.
Overall improving trend in conditions expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 664 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 272000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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