[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 22 08:50:37 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **RED**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0827UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar region 484 now located at (N05E26) continues to
grow (at a slower rate) and remains magnetically very complex.
This region is nearing the centre of the solar disk. If this
region produces a significant solar flare over the next few days
its will quite likely be very geoeffective. The M1 event at around
2120UT had an unusual broad flat profile, and could not be optically
correlated (not from 484). Some surging was visible on the south-east
limb around south 14 degress in Culgoora H-alpha imagery. This
suggests that another active solar region will rotate onto the
solar disk at around south 14 degrees. US SOHO EIT imagery shows
a bright "plume" at this latitude on the eastern solar limb.
Solar flare activity is expected to be moderate, due to both
484 and possibly this new region. Region 484 is still capable
of producing a major flare. The strong solar radio noise storm
remains in progress on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph. US ACE
solar wind speed shows steady and fast at 700km/sec over the
UT day. Elevated wind speed due to solar coronal hole. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field was
mildly southward (5nT) for most of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 26 4343 5444
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 24 4343 5433
Learmonth 33 4333 6-54
Culgoora 19 3333 52--
Canberra 24 3343 5-43
Hobart 31 3344 6444
Casey(Ant) 27 4444 4444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 OCT :
Townsville 13 (Quiet)
Learmonth 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 76 (Active)
Canberra 95 (Minor storm)
Hobart 162 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30 3455 4445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 20 Active, minor storm periods possible.
23 Oct 20 Active, minor storm periods possible.
24 Oct 13 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 18 October
and is current for interval 21-22 October. An increase in activity
is expected for interval 22-23 Oct due coronal hole high speed
wind stream. Disturbance forecast interval increased to cover
23 Oct due to slow decline in solar wind speed from coronal hole
and possible weak coronal mass ejection impact on 22/23.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event. (Chance for proton flare from 484).
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Fair Poor-fair
23 Oct Normal Fair Poor-fair
24 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected at mid to high latitudes
next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Disturbed conditions. Macquire Island
MUFs enhanced 30% early in UT day. Depressed
30% after 20UT. Antartic mainland region
MUFs depressed 15-20% with spread F observed,
and increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct 30 depressed 10 to 20% (southern Aus/NZ region)
22 Oct 60 near predicted monthly values (northern Aus region)
23 Oct 40 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
24 Oct 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 19 October
and is current for interval 20-22 October (SWFs) . Depressed
conditions expected for southern Aus/NZ region today. Northern
region MUFs likely to remain near predicted monthly values (T=60).
Shortwave fadeouts likely on daylight HF circuits, due to large
active solar region on solar disk, and another probable active
solar region rotating onto solar disk.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 592 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 213000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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