[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Oct             12 Oct             13 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar declined further now at a steady 470km/sec. A 
mild increase in wind speed is expected around 11-12 Oct, due 
to a small coronal hole, now located just past the centre of 
the solar disk. Another recurrent period is expected 14-19 Oct 
but maybe weaker on this rotation. The coronal hole which is 
expected to produce activity for this period is now visible on 
the eastern solar hemisphere in SOHO EIT 195 imagery. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1010 1012
      Darwin               1   10-- ----
      Townsville           1   1010 1102
      Learmonth            1   1000 1012
      Culgoora             1   1000 1012
      Canberra             1   0010 -112
      Hobart               0   1010 0002
      Casey(Ant)           5   23-2 1013
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8   4222 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Oct    12    Unsettled 
12 Oct    13    Mostly unsettled with possible isolated active 
                periods. 
13 Oct    15    Mostly unsettled with possible isolated active 
                periods. 
COMMENT: Mild recurrent activity expected next few days. Activity 
may be weaker than on previous rotations due to apparent reduction 
in hole coronal size. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good conditions expected today, then mildly degraded. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Oct    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Oct    80    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
12 Oct    60    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Oct    60    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Higher than normal MUFs expected today. Mild degradation 
possible after 12-13 Oct southern Aus/NZ region, mainly local 
night hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 578 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   210000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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