[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Oct             13 Oct             14 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has continued to decline ending 
the day at 380km/sec. There has been no signature yet in the 
solar wind from the isolated equatorial coronal hole which crossed
soalr central meridian a few days ago. Solar wind speed is expected 
to show a gradual increasing trend over coming days. A "horseshoe" 
shaped coronal hole is visible in the eastern solar hemisphere 
of US SOHO EIT 195 imagery. The recurrent associated activity 
period expected 14-19 Oct from this hole maybe weaker on this 
rotation (allowing for seasonal factors), due to apparent reduction 
in coronal hole size. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1110 0001
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           0   1100 0001
      Learmonth            0   1000 0000
      Culgoora             0   1000 0001
      Canberra             0   1000 0002
      Hobart               0   1100 0001
      Casey(Ant)           6   2332 0000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2112 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Oct    13    Unsettled to Active 
13 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
14 Oct    16    active 
COMMENT: Mild recurrent activity expected next few days. Activity 
may be weaker than on previous rotations due to apparent reduction 
in hole coronal size. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Increase in solar wind speed from small equatorial coronal 
hole has not yet been observed. So good conditions expected today, 
then mildly degraded 14 Oct onwards due to another coronal hole 
currently in eastern soalr hemisphere. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Oct    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Oct    75    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
13 Oct    65    near predicted monthly values 
14 Oct    60    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Higher than normal MUFs expected today. Mild degradation 
possible after 13-14 Oct southern Aus/NZ region, mainly local 
night hours. Forecast of mild degradation slipped out by one 
day due to lack of coronal hole wind stream signature in solar 
wind data. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 457 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    71100 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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