[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 10 08:13:57 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Isolated low level M class flare possible from region
471. This region has about 4 days left before transiting the
solar west limb, and may be showing some decline. Solar wind
slowly declined over UT day, now at 500km/sec. A further decline
in wind speed is expected over the next one-two days. A mild
increase in wind speed is expected around 11-12 Oct, due to a
small coronal hole, now located in the centre of the solar disk.
Another elongated coronal hole is visible to the far east of
the solar disk. Size assessment of this far-east hole is difficult
due to the viewing angle. However, these holes appear smaller
on this rotation. This may indicate that the extended period
of elevated solar wind conditions observed last rotation from
17-22 Sep, and using 27 day recurrence, expected 14-19 Oct for
this rotation, may be weaker than on previous rotations.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 3211 1112
Darwin 0 1100 0000
Townsville 5 3211 1212
Learmonth 5 3211 1211
Culgoora 4 2211 1112
Canberra 5 3221 1112
Hobart 5 3221 1112
Casey(Ant) 8 ---3 21--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Culgoora 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 75 (Active)
Hobart 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 2222 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Oct 12 Unsettled
12 Oct 13 Unsettled, chance for active periods.
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions expected. Next 27 day
recurrent period of activity expected to begin 13-14 Oct. Some
mild elevation in activity may be experienced on 11-12 Oct due
to coronal hole now near centre of solar disk. Induced activity
may be weaker on this rotation due to apparent reduction in coronal
hole size.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good conditions expected until around 13 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 85 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Oct 80 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
12 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Higher than normal MUFs expected today. Mild degradation
possible after 12-13 Oct southern Aus/NZ region, mainly local
night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 578 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 189000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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