[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Oct             10 Oct             11 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Isolated low level M class flare possible from region 
471. Solar wind speed steady at 550-600km/sec. Solar wind speed 
expected to decline over next couple of days. Another small-medium 
coronal hole is nearing solar central meridian, visible in SOHO 
EIT imagery. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2211 1122
      Darwin               0   0100 0000
      Townsville           4   1212 1123
      Learmonth            4   2211 1123
      Canberra             5   2221 1123
      Hobart               5   2221 1122
      Casey(Ant)          15   3--3 ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra           100   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              71   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   4223 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Oct    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions expected. Next 27 day 
recurrent period of activity expected to begin 13-14 Oct. Some 
mild elevation in activity may be experienced on 11 Oct due to 
coronal hole now near centre of solar disk. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good conditions expected until around 13 Oct. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Oct    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  54

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Oct    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
10 Oct    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
11 Oct    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Higher than normal MUFs expected. Mild degradation possible 
after 13 Oct southern Aus/NZ region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.