[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 8 09:39:51 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Region 471 remains the only visible area of significant
magnetic complexity. There is a possibility of isolated C to
M class activity from this region. The small equatorial coronal
hole producing the present elevated solar wind stream is now
approaching the west solar limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 2220 3222
Darwin 0 0100 0001
Townsville 11 323- 3223
Learmonth 10 -23- 3222
Canberra 12 323- 3323
Hobart 11 323- 3222
Casey(Ant) 12 ---- 3323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 OCT :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 68 (Active)
Canberra 120 (Major storm)
Hobart 123 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2222 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 12 Unsettled
09 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated active periods were observed late in the UT
day yesterday, persisting into the first half of the UT day today
at high latitudes. A further active period was observed at all
latitudes around 10UT. Otherwise conditions were at mostly unsettled
levels. Solar wind speed has declined steadily from over 600
to about 500 km/s over the UT day. Interplanetary magnetic field
Bz has remained mostly neutral with minor polarity fluctuations.
As the present coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position,
expect unsettled conditions today, becoming mostly quiet on days
two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Brief depressions observed around local dawn at low
latitudes. Periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes
in association with elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect normal
to enhanced HF propagation conditions for the next three days
at low to mid latitudes. Possible isolated periods of disturbance
today at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
with isolated periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 80 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Oct 90 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
10 Oct 90 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed near local dawn at low latitudes.
Isolated periods of absorption observed S. Ocean. Extended periods
of spread-F conditions observed Antarctic regions. Expect generally
good ionospheric propagation conditions for the next three days
with possible isolated periods of disturbance at high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 153000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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