[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 25 10:43:38 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 177/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Few low level
C-flares were observed- the largest being a C2.6 at
0456UT. The solar wind stream is still strengthened
by the coronal hole effect. The solar wind speed remained
between 550 and 600 km/s (approx) for most of the day.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field remained predominantly northwards. Region 507(N09W03)
is the largest region on the disk. Regions 501(N03W73),
507 and 508(S17E07) hold potential for isolated M-flares.
The solar activity is expected to remain at low to moderate
level during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 2222 4323
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 11 2222 4323
Learmonth 11 2222 4323
Culgoora 11 2222 4323
Canberra 11 2222 4323
Hobart 11 2222 4323
Casey(Ant) 21 4--- 4334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 NOV :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Culgoora 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 88 (Minor storm)
Hobart 76 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 21 3543 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 16 Mostly quiet to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible at high latitudes.
26 Nov 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
27 Nov 10 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: A geoeffectively positioned coronal hole may
enhance geomagnetic activity to active levels (with
possibility of isolated minor storm periods at high
latitudes) tomorrow- particularly if Bz turns negative.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decline
thereafter to unsettled and then to quiet levels during
the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for low
and mid latitudes on 25 November with possibility of minor
depressions and degradations at high latitudes. HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal at most locations for
26 and 27 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov 80 near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 5%.
26 Nov 84 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Nov 90 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next
three days across Australian/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 556 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 197000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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