[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 178/131


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Nov             25 Nov             26 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            180/133
COMMENT: Solar regions 508, 507 and 501 still have the potentail 
of producing significant flare activity. Solar wind parameters 
suggest the Earth is currently under the influence of a coronal 
hole solar wind stream. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 23 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3342 4334
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          14   2332 4334
      Learmonth           14   3332 4234
      Culgoora            13   2332 4234
      Canberra            17   3432 4334
      Hobart              19   3442 4334
      Casey(Ant)          26   --54 4334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              91   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             22   3333 3554     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Nov    20    Mostly unsettled to active with possible isolated 
                minor storm periods. 
25 Nov    16    Unsettled to active 
26 Nov    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: A geoeffectively positioned coronal hole may produce 
isolated minor storm periods for 24 November, with activity levels 
mostly unsettled to active for the next two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : Began at 0020UT 22/11, Ended at 0350UT 22/11
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed for mid-high latitude 
regions during the local day on 23 November, with depressions 
of 15-30% observed at times. Mostly normal conditions are expected 
for all latitudes for 24 November, with slight depressions possible 
at times. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Nov    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  52

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Nov    60    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
25 Nov    70    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
26 Nov    75    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 90 was issued on 22 November 
and is current for interval 22-24 November (SWFs) . Degraded 
HF conditions were observed for southern regions during the local 
day on 23 November, with depressions of 15-30% observed at times. 
Mostly normal conditions are expected for 24 November, with slight 
depressions possible at times. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 533 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:   214000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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