[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 23 11:07:40 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 190/143 190/143
COMMENT: Solar regions 508, 507 and 501 still have the potentail
of producing significant flare activity. Solar wind parameters
suggest the possible arrival of CME/coronal hole effects around
10UT, following which solar wind speeds reached around 600km/s
and the IMF exhibited sustained southward periods of 5-10nT.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1000UT
on 22 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 20 3223 4544
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 17 3223 4443
Learmonth 17 3212 3545
Culgoora 13 2212 3444
Canberra 20 3322 4544
Hobart 26 4332 4554
Casey(Ant) 29 ---4 3544
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 39 7664 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 25 Mostly unsettled to active with possible isolated
minor storm periods.
24 Nov 20 Unsettled to active
25 Nov 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 22 November
and is current for interval 22-23 November. Geomagnetic activity
levels increased for the latter half of the UT day due to the
possible arrival of CME/coronal hole effects. Further isolated
minor storm periods are again possible for 23 November due to
a coronal hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : Began at 0020UT 22/11, Ended at 0350UT 22/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed for mid-high latitude
regions since local dawn on 22 November, with depressions of
15-30% observed at times. Mild depressions are expected at times
for mid-high latitudes for 23 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted montly values to
depressed 15-30% at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov 60 depressed 10 to 20% at times for southern regions/enhanced
10-20% for nothern regions
24 Nov 70 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Nov 75 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 91 was issued on 22 November
and is current for interval 22-23 November. Degraded HF conditions
were observed for southern regions since local dawn on 22 November,
with depressions of 15-30% observed at times. Mild depressions
are expected at times for southern regions for 23 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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