[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 22 11:19:48 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED** MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.8/2B 20/2354UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 177/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 190/143 200/152
COMMENT: Solar regions 508, 507 and 501 still have the potentail
of producing major flare activity. Solar wind speeds are declining
following the impact of the CME during 20 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 37 5664 2234
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 33 5654 223-
Learmonth 28 5553 233-
Culgoora 33 5564 223-
Canberra 33 5564 223-
Hobart 46 6665 3235
Casey(Ant) 35 5654 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 NOV :
Townsville 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 136 (Severe storm)
Canberra 163 (Severe storm)
Hobart 163 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 45
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 67
Planetary 117 1367 7897
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 30 Initially unsettled to active with minor and
possible major storm levels later in the UT day.
23 Nov 25 Active to minor storm
24 Nov 20 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity levels are abating following the
impact the of the CME on 20 November. The CME observed in association
with the M9-flare at 0747UT on 20 November is likely to impact
the Earth in the latter half of the UT day of 22 November. This
CME should combine with an anticipated coronal hole solar wind
stream to produce further minor storm activity later in the UT
day of 22 November. Active to minor storm levels should persist
into 23 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Poor-fair Poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
23 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Severe ionospheric depressions were observed for most
of the UT day of 22 November. HF conditions appear to be returning
to mostly normal, with only mild depressions expected at times
over the next few days. SWF's are also possible over the next
few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov -45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night,
Mostly near predicted monthly values
since local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night,
Mostly near predicted monthly values
since local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15-30% over the UT day,
Mostly near predicted monthly values
since local dawn.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 60 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Nov 60 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
24 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
COMMENT: Severe ionospheric depressions were observed for most
of the UT day of 22 November. HF conditions appear to be returning
to mostly normal, with only mild depressions expected at times
over the next few days. SWF's are also possible over the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 708 km/sec Density: 10.7 p/cc Temp: 71500 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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