[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 21 11:48:57 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED** MAG:**RED** ION:**RED**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9.6/2B 0747UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 190/143 200/152
COMMENT: Solar regions 508, 507 and 501 have the chance of producing
major flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet to Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 68 2366 6766
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 76 2267 676-
Learmonth 75 1266 6777
Culgoora 75 1266 6777
Canberra 66 1366 6-77
Hobart 37 2365 ---6
Casey(Ant) 40 3455 5555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 NOV :
Townsville 11 (Quiet)
Learmonth 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 66 (Active)
Canberra 81 (Minor storm)
Hobart 87 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 105
Planetary 115
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 2344 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 30 Minor and possible major storm periods abating
to mostly active levels.
22 Nov 30 Initially unsettled to active with minor and
possible major storm levels later in the UT day.
23 Nov 30 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 19 November
and is current for interval 19-21 November. The CME expected
to have a glancing impact on the Earth made a direct impact,
and was observed as a shock in the solar wind at 0740UT and a
sudden impulse in the magnetic field of 100nT at 0804UT. The
sudden impulse was followed by a sustained period of strong southward
IMF which resulted in severe storm levels. Storm levels should
gradually decline for 21 November. Another CME observed in association
with the M9-flare at 0747UT on 20 November is likely to impact
the Earth in the latter half of the UT day of 22 November. This
CME should combine with an anticipated coronal hole solar wind
stream to produce further storm activity later in the UT day
of 22 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal-fair Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
22 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
23 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: The anticipated geomagnetic activity levels were significantly
higher than expected resulting in severe ionospheric depressions
of greater than 30% at times. Significant depressions are again
expected for the early 21 November. Depressions are again possible
later in the UT day of 22 November and into 23 November, with
SWF's also possible over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values for the first
half of the UT day followed by depressions of
15-30% and greater.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 45 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
22 Nov 60 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Nov 60 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 88 was issued on 18 November
and is current for interval 19-21 November (SWFs) . The anticipated
geomagnetic activity levels were significantly higher than expected
resulting in severe ionospheric depressions of greater than 30%
at times. Significant depressions are again expected for the
early 21 November. Depressions are again possible later in the
UT day of 22 November and into 23 November, with SWF's also possible
over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+08 (high)
X-ray background: B8.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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