[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 171/125


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Nov             27 Nov             28 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            160/114            160/114
COMMENT: Elevated solar wind speeds due to a coronal hole are 
declining. Solar regions 507 and 508 still have the potential 
for significant flare activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 25 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   4233 3422
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          11   3233 2323
      Learmonth           13   3233 3412
      Culgoora             9   3223 2313
      Canberra            20   5333 3422
      Hobart              15   3333 3411
      Casey(Ant)          18   4--4 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 NOV : 
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            81   (Minor storm)
      Canberra           145   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             103   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   2232 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Nov    16    Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active 
                periods. 
27 Nov    12    Quiet to unsettled 
28 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Elevated solar wind speeds resulting from a geoeffectively 
positioned coronal hole are declining and mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Nov    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  52

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Nov    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
27 Nov    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
28 Nov    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 557 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   150000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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