[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 17 10:47:29 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 125/78 150/105
COMMENT: Region 501 remains the only significant active region
on the visible solar disk at present. This region produced a
long duration C7.0 flare at 1030UT. LASCO imagery was not available
to confirm any CME. There were no reported Type II radio sweeps.
Significant solar radio noise stormimg has been observed this
morning (local time) on the Culgoora radiospectrograph. Solar
wind parameters are expected to remain elevated for another two
days under the influence of the present geoeffective coronal
hole.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 486 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 18 Nov. Previously X-flare(s)
producing region 488 is also due for return to the north-east
limb around this day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 32 3344 5554
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 29 3344 5454
Learmonth 29 3333 5554
Culgoora 27 3343 5544
Canberra 32 3344 5554
Hobart 31 4344 5544
Casey(Ant) 34 4-54 4545
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 NOV :
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 71 (Active)
Culgoora 89 (Minor storm)
Canberra 130 (Severe storm)
Hobart 165 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 40 3465 5544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
18 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
19 Nov 20 active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at unsettled to minor storm
levels over much of the UT day, due to the persisting high speed
coronal hole wind stream. Solar wind speed increased from 700
to 800 km/s in the second half of the UT day. Interplanetary
magnetic field Bz component has remained moderately southward
with fluctuations from 0 to -5nT. Following the increased solar
wind velocity, periods of minor storm conditions were observed
at low to mid latitudes, with isolated major storm periods at
high latitudes. Coronal hole wind stream effects are continuing,
and disturbed geomagnetic conditions are probable for the next
two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal-fair Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
18 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
19 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Depressed propagation conditions observed today after
local dawn at mid to high latitudes. Expect continuing HF propagation
disturbance at all latitudes for the next two days, due to continuing
coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% after local dawn,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Slightly below predicted monthly values over
the UT day, with extended periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov 25 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
18 Nov 35 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
19 Nov 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 87 was issued on 16 November
and is current for interval 16-17 November. Widespread intense
daytime sporadic-E conditions observed, especially at mid latitudes.
Night time equatorial spread-F conditions observed. Spread-F
observed at high latitudes, with occasional slant-E observed
at polar cap stations. Ionospheric depressions of 10-30% observed
after local dawn today S. Aus/NZ regions. Expect continuing periods
of HF degradation for the next two days, especially at mid to
high latitudes, due to persisting coronal hole high speed wind
stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 667 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 242000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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