[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 18 10:47:24 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0134UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4/1N 0905UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 155/109 165/119
COMMENT: Region 501 remains the only significant active region
on the visible solar disk at present. This region produced a
long duration C4.2 flare at 0900UT. There was a Type II radio
sweep reported in assocoiation with this event. An earlier M1
level event was impulsive in nature and optically correlated
with region 501. Solar wind parameters will remain elevated for
another two days under the influence of the present geoeffective
coronal hole.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 486 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 18 Nov. Also, previously X-flare(s)
producing region 488 is also due for return to the north-east
limb around this day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 21 3434 4433
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 19 2334 4433
Learmonth 26 3334 5533
Culgoora 19 2334 4433
Canberra 20 3334 4433
Hobart 21 3434 4433
Casey(Ant) 34 -545 4444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 NOV :
Townsville 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 67 (Active)
Culgoora 106 (Major storm)
Canberra 157 (Severe storm)
Hobart 186 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 37
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 35 4555 4544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 20 active
19 Nov 12 Unsettled
20 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity declined slightly over the UT day,
but remains elevated at around 650 km/s. Interplanetary magnetic
field Bz maintained a southward bias over the first half of the
UT day, becoming mostly neutral later in the day. Geomagnetic
conditions were at unsettled to active levels. Mostly unsettled
conditions are expected today, as coronal hole wind stream effects
subside. A possible shock may occur late on Nov 19 to early Nov
20 following the CME associated with an M4 level solar flare
at 17/0900.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed propagation conditions observed today after
local dawn at mid to high latitudes. Expect continuing HF propagation
disturbance at all latitudes for the next day, due to continuing
coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
with localised extended periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov 55 near predicted monthly values
19 Nov 65 near predicted monthly values
20 Nov 40 about 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally improving HF conditions observed at all latitudes
as geomagnetic disturbance due to coronal hole wind stream subsides.
Expect continuing periods of disturbance at high latitudes today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 756 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 308000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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