[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 16 10:57:20 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 125/78
COMMENT: Active region 501 maintains its magnetic complexity,
but produced only minor C-class flare activity today. High speed
solar wind stream effects are persisting due to the currently
geoeffective large coronal hole.
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 0518UT on 15
Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 33 2464 4534
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 36 2555 4544
Learmonth 32 3454 5534
Culgoora 28 2454 4533
Canberra 34 2464 4544
Hobart 40 3465 5534
Casey(Ant) 35 --64 4434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 NOV :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 76 (Active)
Canberra 122 (Severe storm)
Hobart 116 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 37 5555 5343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
17 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
18 Nov 25 active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at unsettled to minor storm
levels over much of the UT day, due to a persisting high speed
coronal hole wind stream. A strong shock signature in the solar
wind parameters was detected on the ACE satellite platform around
0520UT, with solar wind speed rising from 600 to 750 km/s, followed
by a period of sustained IMF Bz southward polarity. Major geomagnetic
storm periods were observed some hours later at mid to high latitudes.
Coronal hole wind stream effects are continuing, and disturbed
geomagnetic conditions are probable for the next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Fair Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
17 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
18 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Low and mid latitudes experienced degraded HF propagation
conditions during local day, with briefly enhanced conditions
during local night. High latitudes experienced extensive periods
of degradation throughout the UT day. Expect continuing HF propagation
disturbance at all latitudes for the next two days, due to continuing
coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Slightly below predicted monthly values during
local day, briefly enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Extended periods of degradation over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 15 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
17 Nov 25 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
18 Nov 35 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Persistent and occasionally intense sporadic-E conditions
observed at all latitudes. Night time spread-F conditions observed
equatorial and polar latitudes. Ocasionally persistent slant-E
conditions observed polar cusp and polar cap stations. Persistent,
severe ionospheric depressions observed at low to mid latitudes
after local dawn and during local day, with briefly enhanced
propagation conditions during local night. Expect continuing
degraded HF conditions due to coronal hole induced geomagnetic
activity. Increased absorption observed around local mid-day
in Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 635 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 211000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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