[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 8 09:14:31 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed rapidly declined after yesterdays hock
arrival and is now at 450 km/sec. The Sun is now expected to
be very quiet and is almost spotless. A large coronal hole is
visible in teh Suns eastern solar hemisphere. Recurrence suggests
that elevated solar wnd speeds can be expected from 10 Nov, perhaps
extended to 18 Nov. This wind stream had a mildly southward magnetic
orientation on its last roatation, which increased its geoeffectiveness.
Speculatively, US SEC GOES xray flux plot shows some rounded
B flare humps and these could be indicating that 486 is still
active behind the western solar limb. The recent proton event
ended at 0925UT 07 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 3322 1112
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 6 3222 1112
Learmonth 6 3212 1212
Culgoora 7 3312 1111
Canberra 7 3322 1112
Hobart 7 3322 1112
Casey(Ant) 16 5--3 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 NOV :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 70 (Active)
Canberra 124 (Severe storm)
Hobart 146 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 2222 3354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 8 Quiet
09 Nov 13 Quiet to unsettled
10 Nov 20 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 10-13 November. Not much activity
followed recent shock arrival. Next two days expected to be relatively
quiet. The Earth is expected to enter a high speed wind stream
10 Nov. This may again produce an extended period of geomagnetic
activity, possibly up to 18 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : Began at 2225UT 04/11, Ended at 0925UT 07/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to continue to improve today,
However, degraded conditions are expected after 10 Nov due to
coronal hole high speed wind stream induced activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced early in UT day, then.
near predicted monthly values.
Some Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 80 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Nov 70 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 11-13 November. Ionosphere had a
positive response to recent glancing blow from west limb mass
ejection. Normal HF conditions expected next two days. Moderately
depressed/degraded conditions expected for southern Aus/NZ after
10 Nov due to anticipated activity from a solar coronal hole.
Northern Aus region MUFs expected to remain near normal.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 487 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 76700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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