[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 9 09:25:46 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was steady at around 420km/sec until
late in the UT day when wind speed increased to about 500km/sec.
Bz also flucuated southward towrd the end of the UT day. It is
unclear whether this feature is an early than expected entry
into the coronal hole wind stream expected on 10 Nov. An increasing
trend in solar wind speed is now possible over next 24 hours
if this feature is solar wind stream entry signature. The Sun
has been quiet over past 24 hours and is expected to remain quiet
for the next three days. The Sun is just about spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 1122 3433
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 11 1122 3433
Learmonth 13 1022 3532
Culgoora 9 1122 3332
Canberra 9 0122 2433
Hobart 10 1222 2433
Casey(Ant) 13 2-43 2323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3212 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 13 Unsettled to Active
10 Nov 20 active
11 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 54 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 10-13 November. The Earth may have
begun to enter the anticipated coronal hole wind stream earlier
than expected. An extended period of geomagnetic activity, possibly
up to 18 Nov is possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : Began at 2225UT 04/11, Ended at 0925UT 07/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
11 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Gradually deteriorating HF conditions at mid to high
latitudes now expected. Low latitude communication expected to
remain normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov 70 mostly 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov 50 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 84 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 11-13 November. Mild/brief depressions
of 15% possible for some southern region sites after local dawn
this morning. Moderately depressed/degraded conditions expected
for southern Aus/NZ after 10 Nov due to anticipated activity
from a solar coronal hole wind stream. Northern Aus region MUFs
expected to remain near normal.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 530 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 248000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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