[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 7 10:23:09 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Moderate shock in solar wind observed at 1920UT on 06
Nov. Solar wind speed jumped from around 495 to 563km/sec across
the shock. Shock is believed associated with west limb superflare
from departed region 486. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was mildy (5nT) southward post shock, but returned
to near neutral orientation by 21 UT. Solar wind speed fluctuated
after shock arrival and may already be showing a decline. Thus
the geoeffectiveness of this event is expected to be mild. The
solar proton event that followed this large flare has almost
ended. The Sun is expected to be quiet in coming days. A coronal
hole is visible in the Sun's eastern solar hemisphere in US SOHO
EIT 284 imagery.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 2211 2253
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 7 2111 2143
Learmonth 10 2110 2254
Culgoora 7 1111 2143
Canberra 9 2311 2143
Hobart 8 2211 2243
Casey(Ant) 31 3--- 3364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 9 2122 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 16 Active early in UT day then quiet.
08 Nov 8 Quiet
09 Nov 13 Unsettled
COMMENT: Glancing blow from recent large west limb flare has
arrived but effects only moderate. Active periods (chance minor
storm) may be experienced early in the UT day today, then a rapid
decline to quiet to unsettled conditions is expected. 27 day
recurrence patterns suggest active conditions can be expected
after 10 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 04 11 2003 2225UT and
is in progress (just above event threshold).
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Poor-Fair (improving)
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to generally improve today,
at mid to high latitudes with the near ending of the 10MeV proton
event and only moderate degradation early in the UT day from
the recent CME arrival. High latitude HF communications quality
showed then be near normal for a couple of days before a return
to degraded conditions after 10 Nov due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream induced activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 70 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Nov 70 near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 65 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Glancing blow from recent CME has arrived. Effects minimal.
Some southern region sites may experience brief depressions after
local dawn this morning. Active solar regions have departed solar
disk shortwave fadeouts no longer expected. Normal communications
expected next few days. Next mild to moderately degraded interval
for southern Aus/NZ after 10 Nov due to anticipated activity
from a solar coronal hole. MUFs may trend lower to more median
levels in coming days, due to reduced solar flux levels due
to a quiet Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 557 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 137000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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