[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 6 10:48:01 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5/SF 1052UT possible lower European
M1/SF 0237UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Very low Very low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Its all over for a while. Solar activity is expected
to rapidly decline today as we farewell very flare active 486
rotating off disk over the south-western solar limb. There
is a chance for a further isolated flare from behind the limb
from 486 today. GOES background xray flux levels have already
dropped to around B7. Solar region 484 is due back around 13
Nov, regions 486 and 488 around 18 Nov, assuming they dont decay
on the solar backside transit. Solar wind speed had a declining
trend over past 24 hours. A glancing blow shock arrival is possible
next 24 hours from the extreme westlimb superflare (reported as
as sauturated X17, now estimated as an X28 by US SEC) from departing
486. ACE EPAM low energy ion shock arrival precursor channels
still have a high flux from recent activity, but may be showing
a weak/slow upward trend late in the UT day, possibly hinting
that a shock is enroute. The proton event associated with this
westlimb flare remains in progress and is expected to end today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 2111 1132
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 5 2111 1132
Learmonth 3 2110 1123
Culgoora 4 2110 0132
Canberra 5 2211 0132
Hobart 4 2221 0122
Casey(Ant) 14 4--- 2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Culgoora 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 31 3257 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 20 Active to minor storm, due to chance arrival
of mass ejection from on limb major flare.
07 Nov 10 Unsettled
08 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Chance arrival from flare/CME which was observed on
western solar limb. Geomagnetic activity is expected to have
an over all declining profile of activity over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 04 11 2003 2225UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Poor-Fair(PCA easing)
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to generally improve in coming
days. A mild to moderate degradation may be experienced today
if a glancing blow from a west limb flare/CME arrives. The Proton
event effecting polar HF communications is expected to end today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 80 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Nov 50 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Nov 90 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Higher than normal MUFs expecte today. There is a chance
for briefly depressed MUFs tomorrow if a glancing blow from a
recent mass ejection arrives sometime today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 704 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 463000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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