[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 5 10:53:57 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/-- 0556UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1/-- 1349UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity High Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Region 486(S17W89)
produced a massive >X-17.4 flares, which has been reported
as one of the biggest events on record. This flare saturated
the GOES X-ray sensor for 11 minutes and, therefore, its exact
magnitude could not be determined. The flare was associated
with intense radio bursts at all frequencies, Type II and
Type IV radio sweep and a bright CME from the western limb.
Culgoora has estimated a shock speed of 1500 km/s. This is not
an earthwards directed CME but its glancing blow may be
observed on the geomagnetic field. Region 486 also produced
an M2.6 flare at 0556UT and an M1.1 flare at 1349UT. Region 488
has passed the limb and it produced an M3 flare at 1022UT. Three
C-class flares were also observed today. The >10MeV proton event
that started at 1740UT/02 November has ended at 2120UT/04
November. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 520 km/s
to 480 km/s (approx) during the first six hours of the UT day.
Then the arrival of a shock at 0558UT, due to the CME activity
observed on 02 November, suddenly raised the solar wind speed to
approximately 700 km/s. The speed went up further to approximately
780 km/s for about 7 hours and then showed a gradual decrease to
600 km/s (approx) by the time of this report. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (BZ) remained
slightly positive during the first few hours of the UT day and
showed a rapid rise in the the northward direction on the arrival
of the shock. Bz then fluctuated between +20 nT and -20 nT
(approx) for about two hours and then settled moderately northwards.
Bz now seems to be settling near the normal value. Region 486 is
about to completely pass the limb now. It still holds potential for
major flare and keep the solar activity at high level on 05
November and moderate level on 06 November. The solar activity is
expected to decline further thereafter. A strong shock was
observed in the solar wind at 0558UT on 04 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 34 3466 3233
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 34 2466 3243
Learmonth 31 3366 3223
Culgoora 33 2466 2143
Canberra 34 3466 2243
Hobart 32 3466 2133
Casey(Ant) 75 --86 4334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 NOV :
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 50 (Unsettled)
Culgoora 75 (Active)
Canberra 129 (Severe storm)
Hobart 138 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 10 3323 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 28 Mostly unsettled to active. Minor storm periods
possible.
06 Nov 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
07 Nov 10 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 3 November
and is current for interval 4-5 November. As anticipated the
geomagnetic activity reached major storm levels today with
reports of severe storms from places. This was due to the
arrival of the CME observed on 02 November in association
with an X8 flare. Shock was detected at 0558UT/04 November.
A moderate sudden impulse (87nT) was also detected at 0626UT
today. The geomagnetic storm died out soon as the the
north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
remained mostly northwards throughout the UT day. The solar
wind stream is still going strong and if Bz turns southwards,
minor storm may again eventuate on 05 November. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to decline after that. A moderate (87nT)
impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0626UT on
04 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions may show mild depressions and degradations
on 05 November at mid and high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov 80 near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 85 05 to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Nov 90 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on 3
November and is current for interval 3-5 November. HF conditions
in Aus/NZ region may show minor depressions and degradations
on 05 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.9E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: C3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 283 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 76600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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