[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 4 10:47:10 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X3/2F 0955UT probable all Mid East/Indian
X2/2B 0130UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
M3/SF 1532UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity High Moderate to low Low
Fadeouts Probable Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 130/84 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Region 488(N08W82)
produced two X-flares- an X2.7 at 0130UT and an X3.9 at
0955UT. Both these flares had associated Type II radio
sweeps and partial halo CMEs with them. Neither of these
CMEs is expected to have any significant geoeffectiveness.
Region 486 (S17W75) produced an M3.9 flare at 1532UT. This
event could not be related to any other activity. The
>10MeV proton event, that started at 1740UT/02 November,
is still in progress. The >100MeV proton event, that started
at 1740UT/02 November, has ended at 1720UT/03 November. The
PCA event is continuing. The solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 600 km/s to 520 km/s (approx) by the time of
this report today. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (BZ) showed small fluctuations
(between +5nT and -5nT approx.) throughout the UT day- mostly
remaining slightly northwards. Regions 488 is due to pass the
limb and go to the back side of the disk in the late hours
tomorrow. Region 486 is due to pass the limb in the early
hours on 05 November. These regions still maintain their large
sizes and magnetic complexities. The solar activity may,
therefore, be expected to remain at high levels on 04 November
and then significantly decerase on 05 and 06 November as
regions 486 and 488 disappear behind the limb. Both these
regions hold strong potential for major events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Mostly quiet to
unsettled.
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 3322 2223
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 8 3321 2223
Learmonth 8 3222 2222
Culgoora 5 2312 1113
Canberra 7 2322 1223
Hobart 8 3322 1223
Casey(Ant) 17 4--3 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 72 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 18 3433 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 95 Quiet to severe storm.
05 Nov 35 Minor to major storm, declining to active to
unsettled.
06 Nov 12 Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 3 November
and is current for interval 4-5 November. The geomagnetic
activity further decreased today and is expected to remain
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels for the first few hours
on 04 November. However, the CMEs observed on 01 and 02 November,
are expected to arrive around mid-day on 04 November. This may
again strengthen the solar wind stream and raise the geomagnetic
activity to storm levels on 04 and 05 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Fair-normal Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 02 11 2003 1120UT and is
in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal-poor Normal-poor Poor
05 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
06 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to show mild to strong
depressions and degradations on 04 and 05 November on most
locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to deppressed upto 20%
during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov 15 near monthly predicted values/ depressed upto
25%
05 Nov 30 depressed 05 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 80 05 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on 3
November and is current for interval 3-5 November. HF
conditions in Aus/NZ region are expected to show mild to
strong depressions and degradations on 04 and 05 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 564 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 57200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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