[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 3 10:57:06 EST 2003 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.2 01/2238UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    0756UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.8    1247UT  possible   lower  European
  X8.4    1725UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 190/143

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            170/124            150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Region 486(S17W62) 
produced an X8.3(1725UT) flare that was associated with a 
Type II and a Type IV radio sweeps. A semi-halo CME, first 
observed in the LASCO C3 images at 1742UT, was also associated 
with this flare. This CME was covering the western solar spanning 
and shock speed has been estimated as 1691 km/s. Another partial 
halo CME was observed from the same region (486) on 01 November 
and was associated to the M3 flare that was observed at 2234UT/
01November. The shock speed for this CME was estimated to be 
962 km/s by Culgoora and it was also associated with a Type II 
event. The parameters of both these events indicate an approximate 
arrival of these CMEs around mid-day on 04 November UT day. Two 
low level M-flares were also observed today. The >10MeV proton 
flux reached event threshold at 1120UT today. It fell below the 
threshold within a short time but again crossed the threshold 
level at 1740UT and the event is continuing ever since. The 
>100MeV proton flux reached the threshold level at 1740UT and 
the event is in progress although declining. PCA event is in 
progress. The solar wind speed gradually declined from 600 km/s 
to 500 km/s (approx) by 1700UT today and is currently just below 
500 km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (BZ) showed rapid but small fluctuations (between +5nT and 
-5nT approx.) throughout the UT day. Regions 486 and 488(N08W68) 
are still holding their large sizes and magnetic complexities. 
Both these regions hold strong potential for major events. Solar 
activity is expected to remain moderate to high during the next 
3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 02 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3323 3343
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          14   2323 3343
      Learmonth           15   3323 3343
      Culgoora            12   2323 3332
      Canberra            14   2323 3343
      Hobart              17   3323 3442
      Casey(Ant)          26   45-4 3343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            47   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            74   (Active)
      Hobart             104   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             21   4543 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
04 Nov   100    Minor to major storm with possibility of severe 
                storm. 
05 Nov    40    Minor to major storm. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity further decreased today. 
The solar wind stream further weakened. The decline in the 
geomagnetic activity is expected to continue on 03 November. 
However, the CMEs observed on 01 and 02 November, are expected 
to arrive around mid-day on 04 November. This may again 
strengthen the solar wind stream and raise the geomagnetic 
activity to storm levels on 04 and 05 November. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 02 11 2003 1120UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor          
04 Nov      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Poor          
05 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor          
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to show mild to strong 
depressions and degradations on 04 and 05 November on most 
locations. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Nov    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  52

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov    50    near predicted monthly values 
04 Nov    15    10 to 25% below predicted monthly values 
05 Nov    25    10 to 15% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 82 was issued on 31 
October and is current for interval 1-3 November (SWFs) . HF 
conditions in Aus/NZ region are expected to show mild to strong 
depressions and degradations on 04 and 05 November. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 692 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    20600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list