[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 May             22 May             23 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             135/89             140/94
COMMENT: Regions 364 and 362 both showed some development over 
the past 24 hours and both produced C1 level flares. Further 
C class activity is expected from these regions. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 346 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 21 May. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2222 3222
      Darwin               9   3312 3222
      Townsville          10   --23 322-
      Learmonth            9   2223 3222
      Canberra             7   2222 3122
      Hobart               6   2212 3112
      Casey(Ant)           8   3322 2123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 MAY : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              56   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   3223 2334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters declined over the UT day as the 
previous coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective range. 
Interplanetary magnetic field Bz polarity maintained an average 
neutral value under the influence of this feature and only 
isolated active periods at high latitudes were observed. Expect 
mostly quiet conditions for the next two days. Another small 
equatorial coronal hole is now at solar central meridian and 
may cause unsettled to active conditions after May 22. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally stable HF conditions observed at low to mid 
latitudes. Periods of spread-F observed at southern mid latitudes. 
Extensive speread-F conditions observed at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 May    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Minor depression during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with isolated periods of
      disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 May    90    Near predicted monthly values 
22 May    90    Near predicted monthly values 
23 May    80    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Periods of spread-F observed at southern mid latitudes 
and high latitudes. Periods of intense sporadic-E observed Southern 
Ocean/Antarctic regions. Expect generally improving HF conditions 
over the next two days. Possibility of further coronal hole induced 
disturbances after May 22. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 431 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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