[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 May             23 May             24 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             135/89             140/94
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds increased slowly during the latter 
half of the UT day of 21 May suggesting the Earth is presently 
under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from the 
equatorial coronal hole. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 21 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   2222 3443
      Darwin              13   2222 3444
      Townsville          12   2222 3344
      Learmonth           16   2221 3453
      Canberra            13   2221 3443
      Hobart              12   2211 3443
      Casey(Ant)          11   2332 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 MAY : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   3333 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 May    20    Unsettled to active 
23 May    12    Unsettled 
24 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The Earth is presently under the influence of a high 
speed solar wind stream from an equatorial coronal hole. Active 
to minor storm periods have been observed during 12 May and active 
levels are again possible for 22 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Elevated geomagnetic activity levels may result in mild 
depressions at times during 22 May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 May    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 May    70    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% at times
23 May    80    Near predicted monthly values 
24 May    90    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Elevated geomagnetic activity levels may result in mild 
depressions at times during 22 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    93000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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