[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 May             21 May             22 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             130/84             135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity remains low. A NE directed CME was observed 
in LASCO imagery at about 10UT. This was optically correlated 
with a minor eruptive prominence observed in LASCO EIT195A imagery 
at around 0930UT. The CME does not appear earthward directed. 
Newly emerging regions near the east limb have so far shown little 
development. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 346 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 21 May. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 2223
      Darwin               6   2-21 2223
      Townsville           7   2222 2222
      Learmonth            7   2221 3223
      Canberra             6   1222 2222
      Hobart               7   2222 2222
      Casey(Ant)           8   3321 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 MAY : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            66   (Active)
      Hobart              81   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   2222 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 May    14    Unsettled to Active 
21 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated unsettled to active periods were observed at 
high latitudes only, otherwise geomagnetic conditions were quiet. 
Solar wind speed continues a slow increasing trend, and Bz polarity 
fluctuations increased in amplitude towards the end of the UT 
day. Minor disturbances are possible today at high latitudes, 
otherwise expect quiet to unsettled conditions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Isolated mild overnight depressions observed at mid 
latitudes. Possible disturbances today at high latitudes, otherwise 
HF conditions should be generally stable. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 May    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with isolated periods of
      disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 May    75    Near predicted monthly values 
21 May    85    Near predicted monthly values 
22 May    90    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Night time spread-F observed S Aus/NZ regions. Spread-F 
and occasionally intense sporadic E observed S Ocean/Antarctic 
regions. Expect possible mild depressions during local night 
hours and after local dawn at mid latitudes. Possible local disturbances 
today S Aus/Antarctic regions in association with increased geomagnetic 
activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 430 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    48900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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