[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 19 09:45:24 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 130/84
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 5 1211 1233
Darwin 6 1221 1233
Townsville 7 2111 1333
Learmonth 6 1111 1333
Canberra 4 1110 1233
Hobart 3 1110 1222
Casey(Ant) 11 2322 2243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 MAY :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 No data
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 16 active
20 May 14 Unsettled to Active
21 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind declined to near background levels before
a step increase in wind speed and magnetic flux angle occurred
at around 15UT, indicating a solar sector boundary crossing.
Wind speed commenced an increasing trend after about 20UT which
may be due to a favourably positioned small coronal hole. This
may result in active periods today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
20 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Isolated mild overnight depressions observed at mid
latitudes. Extended periods of spread-F conditions observed in
Antarctic regions. Expect similar conditons today with possible
disturbances at high latitudes in association with increased
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15-20% during local night/dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced 10-30% above predicted monthly values
with widespread spread-F conditions observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
20 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
21 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Possible mild depressions during local night hours and
after local dawn at mid latitudes. Expect local disturbances
today S Aus/Antarctic regions in association with increased geomagnetic
activity. These effects are due to a small favourably positioned
coronal hole and should not persist for more than 1-2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 536 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 83700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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