[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 May             19 May             20 May
Activity     Very low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             120/72             125/78




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2322 2122
      Darwin               6   2321 2112
      Townsville           7   2322 2123
      Learmonth           15   3--- ---3
      Canberra             7   2322 2122
      Hobart               7   2321 2122
      Casey(Ant)          15   3--- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 MAY : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              73   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   3222 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 May    12    Unsettled 
19 May    16    active 
20 May    16    active 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters have continued to decline from 
the previous coronal hole signature. Generally quiet to unsettled 
conditions expected today. Possibility of increased geomagnetic 
activity tomorrow as a small equatorial coronal hole moves into 
geoeffective location. Isolated active periods possible at high 
latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
20 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Isolated mild overnight depressions observed at mid 
latitudes. Extended periods of disturbance and absorption observed 
at high latitudes. Periods of intense sporadic-E conditions observed 
S Aus/Antarctic regions. Expect continued degraded conditions 
at high latitudes today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 May    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% over UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 May    80    Near predicted monthly values 
19 May    75    Near predicted monthly values 
20 May    75    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Possible mild depressions during local night hours and 
after local dawn at southern mid latitudes. Degraded conditions 
expected again today in Antarctic regions. General improvement 
expected over the next few days with a possibility of further 
coronal hole induced disturbance after May 18. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 584 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   143000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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