[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 May             18 May             19 May
Activity     Very low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity remains low with newly emerging regions 
showing only minor plage development. Minor mass ejections were 
observed in LASCO imagery, one south directed at 15/2115UT and 
one east-north east directed at 16/1540UT. Neither could be optically 
correlated in LASCO EIT195 imagery and both may be backside events. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3322 2222
      Darwin              12   3422 2233
      Townsville           6   3212 1122
      Learmonth            6   2221 2222
      Canberra             6   3221 1122
      Hobart               7   2321 2122
      Casey(Ant)          15   4432 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 MAY : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra           166   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             157   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             23   4444 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 May    12    Unsettled 
18 May    12    Unsettled 
19 May    16    active 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continues to decline steadily from 
previously elevated values. The interplanetary magnetic field 
Bz fluctuations of the past several days declined significantly 
early in the UT day. Bz has remained relatively stable with a 
mild southward bias. Unsettled to active periods were observed 
at high latitudes only otherwise geomagnetic conditions were 
quiet. Conditions should remain quiet to unsettled with a possibility 
of further mild disturbance after May 18. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Isolated mild overnight depressions observed at mid 
latitudes. Extended periods of disturbance and absorption observed 
at high latitudes. Expect continued degraded conditions at 
high latitudes today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 May    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 May    90    Near predicted monthly values 
18 May    90    Near predicted monthly values 
19 May    75    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Possible mild depressions during local night hours and 
after local dawn at southern mid latitudes. Periods of absorption 
observed around local sunrise/sunset, and extensive periods of 
spread F observed in Antarctic regions. Degraded conditions expected 
again in Antarctic regions. General improvement expected over 
the next few days with a possibility of further coronal hole 
induced disturbance after May 18. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 662 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   165000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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