[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 16 09:47:20 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 120/72
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is dominated by smaller coronal
hole structures, which may result in persisting geomagnetic activity
over the next few days. Returning active regions on the east
limb have so far shown little spot or magnetic development.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 17 2433 4333
Darwin 16 3433 3333
Townsville 13 2433 3222
Learmonth 14 2323 4333
Canberra 17 2433 4333
Hobart 19 2434 4333
Casey(Ant) 18 3443 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 MAY :
Townsville 16 (Quiet)
Learmonth 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 122 (Severe storm)
Hobart 141 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 27 5554 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 15 Unsettled to Active
17 May 12 Unsettled
18 May 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day but
remains above 600 km/s at the time of report issue. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field continues to fluctuate
5nT about neutral under the influence of the coronal hole wind
stream. Isolated active periods observed at high latitudes only,
otherwise conditions quiet to unsettled. Expect similar conditions
today, with a continued decline in solar wind speed. A small
equatorial coronal hole may cause mild disturbance after May
18.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed at southern mid
latitudes. Extended periods of disturbance and absorption observed
at high latitudes. Intense and persistent sporadic E layers observed
in Antarctic regions. Expect continued degraded conditions at
high latitudes today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 5-15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 80 Near predicted monthly values with mild overnight
depressions S Aus/NZ regions.
17 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
18 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Northern Aus region MUFs again expected to be near normal.
Possible mild depressions during local night hours and after
local dawn at southern mid latitudes. Degraded conditions expected
again today in Antarctic regions. Intense and persistent sporadic
E layers observed over the past 24 hours at high latitudes. Chance
for shortwave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+08 (high)
X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 745 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 277000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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