[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 May             16 May             17 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             115/66
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is dominated by smaller coronal 
hole structures, which may result in persisting geomagnetic activity 
over the next few days. The large trans-equatorial coronal hole 
responsible for the current elevated solar wind has almost rotated 
off the visible disk. Returning active regions on the east limb 
have so far shown little spot or magnetic development. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   3443 3433
      Darwin              20   3443 3433
      Townsville          18   3443 3333
      Learmonth           23   3433 3543
      Canberra            20   3443 3432
      Hobart              18   3443 3332
      Casey(Ant)          24   4543 3433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 MAY : 
      Townsville          47   (Unsettled)
      Learmonth           73   (Active)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             183   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             27   No data     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 May    20    active 
16 May    18    active 
17 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 12 May and 
is current for interval 13-15 May. Recurrence and coronal hole 
imagery suggests that an extended period unsettled to active 
conditions can be expected. The large trans-equatorial coronal 
hole has almost rotated off the visible disk, but a number of 
smaller coronal hole structures are moving into geoeffective 
location. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
16 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected next two days at mid to 
high latitudes. Increasing chance for shortwave fadeouts. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 May    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance observed over 
      the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 May    65    Near predicted monthly values 
16 May    80    Near predicted monthly values 
17 May    90    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Northern Aus region MUFs again expected to be near normal. 
In general southern region MUFs are expected to improve after 
today. However, an extended period of lower than normal MUFs 
after local dawn and degraded local night conditions may be experienced 
by southern Aus/NZ HF communicators. Degraded conditions expected 
again today in Antarctic regions with persistent, extensive spread-F 
conditions prevailing. Chance for shortwave fadeouts. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: A9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 709 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:   320000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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