[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated at 700km/sec and did 
not decline as expected. However, wind speed may have now peaked, 
with a slight declining trend visible toward end of UT day. The 
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated southward 5nT over the 
UT day. 24 hours. A further decline is wind speed is expected 
over the next two days before increasing again after 11 May as 
the Earth enters the wind stream from the second arm of the "U" 
shaped coronal hole. Also, a filament was reported to have 
erupted from the south-west quadrant of the solar disk late on 
07 May, but did not appear to have escaped the Sun, as no mass 
ejection was discernable in LASCO C3 imagery. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 08 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      27   3335 4453
      Darwin              24   3335 4443
      Townsville          26   3345 4443
      Learmonth           29   1335 4553
      Canberra            27   3335 4543
      Hobart              21   3334 4443
      Casey(Ant)          37   -534 3-6-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 MAY : 
      Townsville          16   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           49   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           128   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             173   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             36   5565 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May    17    Unsettled to Active 
10 May    13    Unsettled 
11 May    20    active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity did not decline as quickly as expected, 
due to sustained high solar wind speeds, and active to minor 
storm conditions were observed in local night hours. However, 
activity is expected to decline later today, then increase again 
to active levels after 11 May. Recurrence suggests that this 
secondary period of active conditions may be lengthy. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
10 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
11 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Further degraded conditions again expected at mid to 
high latitudes 9 May due to coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
Conditions are now expected to briefly improve by 10 May, before 
returning to degraded conditions after 11 May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 May    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May    40    depressed 10 to 15% (southern Aus/NZ)
09 May    80    near predicted monthly values (northern Aus)
10 May    75    Near predicted monthly values 
11 May    85    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs depressed 15% yesterday. 
Further depressions probable after local dawn this morning. Northern 
Aus region MUFs appear unaffected at this stage. Some spread 
F was observed on southern Aus region station ionograms during 
local night hours last night, again indicating degraded HF conditions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B6.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 705 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   316000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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