[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 8 09:12:13 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed elevated at 700km/sec due to high speed
wind stream from the first arm of a "U" shaped coronal hole,
now centred on the solar disk. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was southward 5nT over the UT day.
Solar wind speed should start to decline over next 24 hours.
Wind speed is then expected to further decline before increasing
again around 11 May as the Earth enters the wind stream from
the second arm of the "U". Solar activity may decline over coming
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 29 3455 4433
Darwin 26 3455 3332
Townsville 24 3355 3332
Learmonth 33 --55 4433
Canberra 29 3455 4432
Hobart 31 4455 4432
Casey(Ant) 25 4444 43-4
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 MAY :
Townsville 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 76 (Active)
Canberra 151 (Severe storm)
Hobart 185 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 37
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 23 4334 5444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 20 Unsettled to active, with minor storm periods possible.
09 May 13 Unsettled to active
10 May 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Active conditions with minor storm periods forecast
extended to 08 May due to sustained elevated solar wind speed
from solar coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
decline after 08 May, then increase again to active levels after
11 May. This secondary period of active conditions may be lengthy.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Fair-Normal Fair
09 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Further degraded conditions again expected at mid to
high latitudes 8 May due to coronal hole high speed wind stream.
Conditions are then expected to improve, before returning to
degraded conditions after 11 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Spread F observed local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 40 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values (South Aus)
08 May 80 near to 15% above predicted monthly values (North Aus)
09 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 7 May
and is current for interval 8 May only. Southern Aus/NZ region
MUFs depressed 15% after local dawn this morning. Northern Aus
region MUFs appear unaffected at this stage. Some spread F was
observed on southern Aus region station ionograms during local
night hours last night, indicating degraded HF conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 695 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 256000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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