[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 May             08 May             09 May
Activity     Moderate           Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speed rose from 600km/sec to 700km/sec over 
UT day, due to coronal hole high speed wind stream. Solar regions 
348 and 349 now near west limb of the sun. Solar region 349 has 
become more active over past 24 hours, withs everal weak radio 
emissions. Background solar xray flux has increased to just over 
the C1 level towards end of current UT day. A departing flare 
is possible from these regions. 

Note: The planet Mercury will appear to cross the solar disk 
from 0515UT (1515LT Sydney) today 07 May. Culgoora H-alpha
imagery should show the transit on the IPS website: www.ips.gov.au
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 06 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   3323 4443
      Darwin              17   3322 4443
      Townsville          17   3323 4434
      Learmonth           37   4--3 555-
      Canberra            22   3323 5444
      Hobart              19   3323 4443
      Casey(Ant)          23   44-3 3443
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 MAY : 
      Townsville          18   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           52   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           133   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             185   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   2212 2444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 May    18    Unsettled to Active with isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
08 May    14    Unsettled, isolated active periods possible. 
09 May     7    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 2 May and is 
current for interval 5-7 May. Active conditions expected 7 May 
due to another coronal hole high speed wind stream. Isolated 
minor storm periods possible. Field is expected to show declining 
trend 8 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Further degraded conditions expected at mid to high 
latitudes 7 May due to coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 May    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 May    70    10-15% depressed (South Aus)/10-15% enhanced 
                (North Aus) 
08 May    80    Near predicted monthly values 
09 May    80    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs expected to become mildly 
depressed/degraded 07 May. Northern Aus region MUFs are expected 
to remain unaffected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B5.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 525 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:   239000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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