[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 May             05 May             06 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: Solar regions of interest have been quiet over past 
24 hours. Large solar region 349 has shown a slight decrease 
in area. Solar region 345 did not continue to develop. However, 
solar region 348 to the south-east of 349 shows some spot development. 
Solar forecast reduced to low to moderate. Solar wind shows a 
declining trend over past two days and is now at 500km/sec. However, 
an increase in solar wind speed is expected to begin 5 May due 
to a coronal hole now in the centre of the solar disk. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2323 2212
      Darwin               9   2323 2222
      Townsville           8   2323 1211
      Learmonth            7   2223 2211
      Canberra             8   2323 2212
      Hobart               7   2223 2211
      Casey(Ant)          13   3433 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 MAY : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           18   (Quiet)
      Canberra            77   (Active)
      Hobart              61   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             17   3533 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 May    10    Quiet to unsettled 
05 May    17    Unsettled to Active with isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
06 May    20    Unsettled to Active with isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 2 May and is 
current for interval 5-7 May. Geomagnetic field activity is expected 
to decline today before a return to active conditions 5-7 May due to 
another coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: An improvement in HF conditions is expected today, before 
a return to degraded conditions at mid to high latitudes 5-7 
May due to anticipated entry into coronal hole high speed wind 
stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 May    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 May    95    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10-15%. 
05 May    70    near predicted monthly values 
06 May    60    10-15% depressed (South Aus)/10-15% enhanced (North Aus) 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 2 May 
and is current for interval 3-5 May (SWFs) . Improved HF conditions 
expected today. Solar region development has stalled and SWfs 
now looking less likely. Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs expected 
to be mildly depressed/degraded 05-07 May. Northern Aus region 
MUFs are expected to remain unaffected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 583 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   134000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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