[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0308UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 144/98


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 May             04 May             05 May
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             120/72
COMMENT: Solar region 345 just to the south-west of large region 
349 produced the M1 at 0308UT. Solar region 345 also 
produced a C5 flare at 1814UT. Large solar region 349's magnetic 
complexity has not changed significantly since yesterday. Region 
345 has increased in complexity over the past 24 hours. Solar 
activity forecast has been elevated to moderate. Regions 349 
and 345 are reasonably close and there is an outside chance for 
development between these two regions in coming days. Solar wind 
speed remains elevated at 600 km/sec due to coronal hole high 
speed wind steam. Also, another broad equatorial coronal hole 
is visible in the eastern hemisphere of the solar disk, leading 
edge of hole now approaching central meridian, wind stream expected
05-07 May. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 02 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3434 3322
      Darwin              14   3433 3222
      Townsville          15   3424 3312
      Learmonth           12   3333 3223
      Canberra            15   3424 3312
      Hobart              15   3424 3312
      Casey(Ant)          19   4443 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 MAY : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           58   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           174   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             154   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             40   6555 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 May    15    Unsettled to active 
04 May    10    Quiet to unsettled 
05 May    17    Unsettled to Active with isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 2 May and is 
current for interval 5-7 May. Coronal hole induced activity expected 
to decline over next two days. Another coronal hole is expected 
to cause active periods 05-07 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: An improvement in HF conditions is expected over the 
next two days before a return to degraded conditions on day 3 
of the forecast period due to another coronal hole high speed 
wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 May    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 May    95    near predicted monthly values 
04 May    95    near predicted monthly values 
05 May    95    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 2 May 
and is current for interval 3-5 May (SWFs) . Improved HF conditions 
expected next two days. Increasing chance for shortwave fadeouts. 
Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs expected to be mildly depressed/degraded 
05-07 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B5.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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