[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             130/84
COMMENT: Large region 349 now just past the centre of the solar 
disk continues to show growth and is now 1000 millionths of the 
solar hemisphere, and some increasing magnetic complexity has 
been observed. However, this large region has yet to produce 
significant flare activity. The current location of this region, 
just past the centre of the solar disk, is a very geoeffective 
location, if this region starts to produce flare activity. Solar 
wind speed remains elevated at 600 to 650km/sec (slight declining 
trend) due to coronal hole high speed wind steam. Also, another 
broad equatorial coronal hole is visible in the eastern hemisphere 
of the solar disk. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 01 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      24   4344 5334
      Darwin              23   4334 5333
      Townsville          23   4344 5324
      Learmonth           35   5-54 534-
      Canberra            29   4355 5324
      Hobart              29   4355 5324
      Casey(Ant)          21   4344 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 MAY : 
      Townsville          25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra           121   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             175   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        35
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        34
           Planetary             40   5655 4445     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May    20    Unsettled to Active with isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
03 May    16    Unsettled to active 
04 May    10    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 30 April and 
is current for interval 30 April to 2 May. Coronal hole high 
speed wind stream expected to cause active conditions today. 
Isolated minor storm periods possible local night hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
03 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at mid to high latitudes today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 May    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May    95    near predicted monthly values 
03 May    95    near predicted monthly values 
04 May    95    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 30 April 
and is current for interval 30 April to 2 May. Mild depressions 
were generally not observed yesterday, with only Hobart MUFs 
showing a depression response. Mildly degraded conditions remain 
probable for southern Aus/NZ region during local night hours 
and after local dawn over the next two days. Northern Aus region 
MUFs remain unaffected by coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity, 
and have been near to 20% above predicted monthly values. The 
lack of ionospheric response to mild/moderate geomagnetic activity 
from the coronal hole may be due to seasonal factors. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 593 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   208000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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