[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 154/109


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 May             02 May             03 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94
COMMENT: Solar wind speed elevated at 600km/sec due to coronal 
hole. Large region 349 now near centre of solar disk has M class 
flare potential. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 30 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      21   3444 3433
      Darwin              18   3433 3433
      Townsville          20   3444 3333
      Learmonth           20   3334 3444
      Canberra            20   3344 3433
      Hobart              21   3345 3333
      Casey(Ant)          19   3443 2433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 APR : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           20   (Quiet)
      Canberra            90   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             109   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        33
           Planetary             39                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             20   2321 4455     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 May    20    Active to minor storm 
02 May    20    Active to minor storm 
03 May    13    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 30 April and 
is current for interval 30 April to 2 May. Coronal hole high 
speed wind stream expected to cause active conditions next two 
days. Isolated minor storm periods possible local nigh hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at mid to high latitudes next 
two days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Apr   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 May    85    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10-15%. 
02 May    65    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
03 May    65    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 30 April 
and is current for interval 30 April to 2 May. Mild depressions 
expected after local dawn on days 2 and 3 of forecast period 
southern Aus/NZ region only. Northern region MUFs expected to 
remian near to 15% above normal. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B5.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 527 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   210000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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