[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 5 09:16:23 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has declined to 350km/sec. However,
an increasing trend in wind speed is expected today, due to another
coronal hole wind stream. Solar regions have been relatively
quiet over past 24 hours. However, solar region 348 to the south
of large region 349 (mostly stable) continues to show growth.
Both these regions are located in the south-west quadrant of
the solar disk. Isolated low level M class flares possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 4 2112 2112
Darwin 5 2112 2213
Townsville 4 2112 2113
Learmonth 4 2112 2112
Canberra 4 2102 2111
Hobart 4 2112 2111
Casey(Ant) 12 332- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 MAY :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2333 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 17 Unsettled to Active with isolated minor storm
periods possible.
06 May 20 Unsettled to Active with isolated minor storm
periods possible.
07 May 18 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 2 May and is
current for interval 5-7 May. Active conditions expected 5-7
May due to another coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
07 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions at mid to high latitudes 5-7 May
due to anticipated entry into coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15-30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Some spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 70 near predicted monthly values
06 May 60 10-15% depressed (South Aus)/10-15% enhanced
(North Aus)
07 May 60 10-15% depressed (South Aus)/10-15% enhanced
(North Aus)
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 2 May
and is current for interval 3-5 May (SWFs) . Southern Aus/NZ
region MUFs expected to become mildly depressed/degraded late
05-07 May. Northern Aus region MUFs are expected to remain unaffected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+08 (high)
X-ray background: B5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 506 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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