[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 147/101


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            150/105
COMMENT: Solar wind remains at near 500km/sec due to coronal 
hole. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated around neutral 
before becoming consistently 5nT southward after 18UT. Solar 
regions have been quiet over past 24 hours. Returning region 
296 (now region 325) looks magnetically simple. Solar region 
321 has lost some area but retains some magnetic complexity. 
An isolated low level M class flare is possible from this region. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 28 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3342 3433
      Darwin              14   3232 3432
      Townsville          13   3231 3433
      Learmonth           14   3232 3433
      Canberra            17   3342 3433
      Hobart              16   3342 2433
      Casey(Ant)          15   3443 231-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 MAR : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            75   (Active)
      Hobart             101   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             27   5254 4533     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
30 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
31 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Active periods observed over past 24 hours. Further 
active periods expected next few days due to coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Mar    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar    75    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
30 Mar    75    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
31 Mar    75    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Southern region Aus/NZ MUFs depressed yesterday. Northern 
region MUFs near normal. Further degradation possible local night 
hours with possible brief depressions after local dawn for southern 
region Aus/NZ next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 482 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   154000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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